Moore's law

Moore's Law Transistor Count 1970-2020

ftp://download.intel%7Cthumb]]ftp://download.intel%7Cthumb]]

Osbourne Executive (34 365)

NAND scaling timeline

Threshold formation nowatermark

Graphene SPM

Moore's Law is an observation about the semiconductor industry that has become a guiding principle for the development of computer technology. First articulated by Gordon Moore, a co-founder of Intel Corporation, in 1965, Moore's Law predicts that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles approximately every two years. This increase in transistor density was expected to enhance the performance of computers, making them faster, more reliable, and more efficient, while reducing the cost of production per transistor.

Background

In 1965, Gordon Moore, then working at Fairchild Semiconductor, observed that the number of components (transistors, resistors, diodes, or capacitors) in a dense integrated circuit had doubled every year since the integrated circuit was invented. Moore predicted that this trend would continue for the foreseeable future. In 1975, Moore revised his forecast to doubling approximately every two years. This observation, widely known as Moore's Law, has been remarkably accurate for several decades and has become a target for industry and a benchmark for research and development.

Implications of Moore's Law

The implications of Moore's Law are vast, affecting various aspects of technology and society. As microprocessors become more powerful and less expensive, the capabilities of computers increase, enabling new applications and technologies. This has led to the proliferation of personal computers, smartphones, and the Internet, transforming how people communicate, work, and entertain themselves.

Moreover, Moore's Law has driven advancements in other fields such as biotechnology, nanotechnology, and artificial intelligence. The ability to process large amounts of data quickly and efficiently has accelerated research and development in these areas, leading to breakthroughs that were once thought impossible.

Challenges to Moore's Law

As semiconductor technology approaches the physical limits of silicon-based transistors, maintaining the pace of Moore's Law has become increasingly challenging. The size of transistors cannot be reduced indefinitely, as quantum effects and heat dissipation become significant obstacles at very small scales. This has led the industry to explore alternative materials and technologies, such as quantum computing and 3D integrated circuits, to continue the trend of increasing computing power.

Future of Moore's Law

The future of Moore's Law is a subject of much debate among technologists and researchers. While some believe that alternative technologies will emerge to sustain the growth in computing power, others argue that the economic and physical limitations will eventually slow down the pace of advancement. Regardless of its future, Moore's Law has been a fundamental principle that has shaped the evolution of technology over the past half-century.