Peak oil

Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of extraction of petroleum is reached, after which the rate of production is expected to enter terminal decline. This concept is derived from M. King Hubbert's theory, which is used to predict the production peak of a given geographical area, and has been used to predict the peak of oil production worldwide.

History

The concept of peak oil was first proposed by M. King Hubbert, a geologist working for Shell Oil in the 1950s. Hubbert predicted that oil production in the United States would peak in the 1970s, a prediction that was largely accurate. The concept has since been applied to global oil production, with varying predictions for when the peak will occur.

Theory

The theory of peak oil is based on the observed rise, peak, and decline of oil production in oil fields over time. Once the oil reserves in a field have been discovered, oil production increases until the rate of extraction reaches a maximum or "peak" level. After this point, oil production declines until the field is depleted.

Implications

The implications of peak oil are significant, as modern economies are heavily dependent on oil for transportation, manufacturing, and electricity generation. A decline in oil production could lead to higher oil prices, economic instability, and geopolitical conflict. However, the impact of peak oil could be mitigated by the development of alternative energy sources, improvements in energy efficiency, and changes in consumption patterns.

Criticism

Critics of the peak oil theory argue that it is based on a simplistic view of oil production and does not take into account advances in extraction technology or the discovery of new oil reserves. They also point out that the concept of peak oil is based on the assumption that oil demand will continue to grow at a steady rate, which may not be the case due to changes in technology or economic conditions.

See also

• Hubbert peak theory
• Petroleum geology
• Energy crisis
• Renewable energy