Scientific consensus on climate change

20200324 Global average temperature - NASA-GISS HadCrut NOAA Japan BerkeleyE

20200324 Global average temperature - NASA-GISS HadCrut NOAA Japan BerkeleyE.svg#Pairwise correlation

20220629 Public estimates of scientific consensus on climate change - horizontal bar chart

1979- Radiative forcing - climate change - global warming - EPA NOAA

2017 Global warming attribution - based on NCA4 Fig 3.3 - single-panel version

Climate science opinion2r

Scientific consensus on climate change refers to the overwhelming agreement among climate scientists that the Earth's climate system is unequivocally warming and that it is extremely likely (meaning 95% confidence or higher) that this warming is predominantly caused by human activities, particularly through the emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O). This consensus is supported by various studies and surveys, as well as the positions of scientific organizations worldwide.

Overview

The concept of scientific consensus is important in the context of climate change as it reflects the collective judgment, position, and opinion of the scientific community on a particular issue, based on the evaluation of evidence and the methodologies used. In the case of climate change, the consensus has been reached through extensive research, data analysis, and modeling efforts that have been peer-reviewed and validated over time.

Evidence of Consensus

Several studies have quantitatively analyzed the level of consensus among climate scientists or in the scientific literature. One of the most cited is a 2013 study by Cook et al., which reviewed over 12,000 abstracts of peer-reviewed scientific papers on climate change and found that 97% of those that took a position on the cause of global warming agreed that human activities are responsible. Other surveys of scientists and literature reviews have found similar levels of agreement.

Statements by Scientific Organizations

Virtually all major scientific bodies around the world have issued statements endorsing the consensus on climate change. This includes the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which states that it is "unequivocal" that the climate system is warming and that it is "extremely likely" that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. Other organizations, such as the National Academy of Sciences (NAS), the American Meteorological Society (AMS), and the Royal Society, have made similar affirmations.

Implications of the Consensus

The scientific consensus on climate change has significant implications for policy and action. It serves as a call to action for governments, businesses, and individuals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change. Despite the strong consensus, there has been political and public debate about climate change, often influenced by misinformation and vested interests.

Challenges and Misinformation

One of the challenges in communicating the scientific consensus on climate change is the spread of misinformation, which can create the perception of greater disagreement among scientists than actually exists. Efforts to educate the public and policymakers about the consensus and the evidence behind it are crucial in countering skepticism and facilitating informed decision-making.

Conclusion

The scientific consensus on climate change is a critical element in understanding the reality of global warming and its causes. It underscores the need for urgent action to address this global challenge and highlights the role of human activities in driving climate change. Recognizing and acting upon this consensus is essential for effective climate policy and for the long-term health of the planet.

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